USA (Washington Insider Magazine) – The Israeli military and the Pentagon are collaborating closely to get ready for the possibility that Iran or Hezbollah, the Iranian proxy, could strike Israel. This collaboration follows heightened tensions that resulted from the recent assassinations of prominent figures in Beirut and Tehran.
Both Iran and Hezbollah have vowed to retaliate after the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr and Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s death, it has acknowledged its role in the attack that killed Shukr in Beirut. An Israeli defence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, pointed out that any attack that harmed Israeli civilians would be a significant escalation, although Israel is not seeking war.
Military reinforcement of the USA in the region
In response to the escalating situation, the Pentagon has announced it is moving two additional naval destroyers and a squadron of F-22 Raptor fighter jets into the Eastern Mediterranean as part of efforts to bolster defenses in and around Israel. These transfers are considered unprecedented in their scope and are intended to strengthen Israel’s defence.
Diplomatic challenges with regional allies
According to the Ruralradio, the Biden administration actively engages with regional allies to strengthen the coalition defending Israel. However, U.S. diplomats report difficulties in convincing some partners to rejoin the defensive efforts, partly due to concerns over actions attributed to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, such as the killing of Haniyeh in Iran. Despite Israel’s lack of public acknowledgment of the assassination, international partners view these actions as potentially provocative.
Strategic Calculations in Tehran and Tel Aviv
Retaliation from Iran, according to former Israeli generals, might take a different strategy than the missile and drone onslaught of April. According to analysts, Iran is considering its options carefully to prevent a serious Israeli counterattack. Both Israel and Iran are trying to strike back without going into full-scale combat; they are both treading carefully.
Hezbollah Under Pressure to Respond
Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has pledged to respond to the Israeli airstrike in Beirut that killed Fuad Shukr. Israeli officials described the strike as a direct retaliation for a previous rocket attack on the Golan Heights. Experts believe Hezbollah is under more pressure than Iran to respond, given the loss of its top military leader. Meanwhile, Iran may delay its response to Haniyeh’s assassination, as the circumstances surrounding his death provide Tehran with some flexibility in timing its retaliation.
Avoiding Full-Scale War
Both Israel and its adversaries face the challenge of conducting effective retaliatory strikes without sparking a broader conflict. The strategic aim for all parties involved is to achieve deterrence while avoiding the escalation that could lead to a full-scale war.