UKRAINE (Washington Insider Magazine) – According to two U.S. sources familiar with the recent projections, Russian President Vladimir Putin has gathered 70% of the armed forces personnel and weapons needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Ukraine’s borders.
The percentage is an estimation based on the most recent intelligence analyses, but officials declined to say what kind of data they had or how they produced their judgments, stressing the sensitivity of the material they collect. According to CNN, the estimate reflects Russia’s continued massive buildup of troops on Ukraine’s frontiers, but it’s unknown how long it will take Vladimir to ramp up even further, or whether he’d need complete capabilities to invade.
The human toll might be devastating: According to some estimates, civilian deaths in Ukraine could number in the tens of thousands, with up to 5 million people displaced.
US officials have stated publicly and privately that authorities do not know if Russia has reached a decision on military intervention, but President Biden’s national defense and intelligence officials are assessing multiple scenarios and potential results behind the scenes.
US officials are attempting to paint a picture of possibly disastrous results and the risk Russia poses in closed-door, secret sessions to Congress as well as public news conferences. Officials in the United States are eager to convey to the American people why the destiny of Ukraine might usher in a period of global security and economic turmoil.
According to US predictions, Moscow continues to expand troops to the region on a near-daily basis, and may shortly have enough to launch an operation. Given Putin’s recent moves, as well as his public language on Ukraine and NATO, US authorities believe he will make a decision soon, and that it is more probable than not that he will go through.
Officials repeatedly emphasize that the information they have led them to develop these estimations, but they are only that. However, some of them are quite frightening.
The Pentagon has made no secret of the existence of possible Russian invasion forces.
According to publicly accessible weather calculations, the best moment for a Russian invasion would be when the ground is frozen solid and heavy artillery can move freely. According to US sources, Putin understands that he must move before the end of March.
