Afghanistan (Washington Insider Magazine) -Less than three weeks ago, the Taliban was continuing to insist there was no ISIS presence in Afghanistan. Yet the latter has since claimed responsibility for over a dozen terrorist attacks in the country, including an explosion at a funeral for the mother of Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Muhajid just days ago.
Though seemingly natural allies, particularly considering the Taliban’s previous alliance with Al Qaeda, tensions between the Taliban and ISIS have been brewing for years.
As ISIS expanded into Syria and Iraq in 2014 and 2015, it found support from Taliban members frustrated with their leadership’s failure to replicate the same success in Afghanistan. ISIS also exploited sectarianism in the country, gaining support for its promotion of Salafist Islam in comparison to the Hanafism advocated by the Taliban.
In addition, militants from Central and South Asia (many of which had fought in the Middle East) were incentivized to create a province of “Khorasan,” a historical region that includes parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, and Central Asia.
The Afghan chapter of ISIS, now known as the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K), was established in the Nangarhar Province in eastern Afghanistan in January 2015, followed by another outpost in the northern province of Jowzjan.
The developments prompted the Taliban’s leader at the time, Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, to write a letter to his then-ISIS counterpart, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, to abandon recruitment in Afghanistan, insisting the war against the US should be led by the Taliban. But ISIS’ relentless efforts to create a global caliphate, where the Taliban would naturally play a subordinate role, had already resulted in open conflict.
The first notable incident between the Taliban and IS-K occurred in February 2015, following IS-K’s assassination of a senior Taliban commander in Logar province. However, as fighting intensified over the next few years, IS-K’s influence in Afghanistan dwindled as it faced the wrath of the Taliban, US-led NATO forces, and the Afghan military.
In comparison, the Taliban’s growing strength helped initiate talks with the Afghan and US governments, resulting in the Doha Agreement in 2020. As part of the peace agreement, the Taliban promised to prevent militant groups from operating in Afghanistan. In response, IS-K publicly attacked the Taliban for deviating from its jihadist path and announced a new war against them and “their U.S. masters.”
As the Afghan government fell and a new wave of chaos erupted across the country, countless numbers of ISIS fighters escaped from prison. Though the Taliban attempted to clamp down on the outbreak, the deteriorating security situation helped IS-K to refocus its efforts. The explosion that killed 13 US service members in August was claimed by the group, further undermining the Taliban’s claims of its ability to control the country and maintain stability.
Reconciliation between the Taliban and ISIS remains unlikely. The Taliban’s alliance with Al Qaeda proved a costly association that saw them removed from power for two decades. Distancing itself from IS-K is paramount to the Taliban’s desire to gain official recognition as Afghanistan’s legitimate governing authority.
Currently, the Taliban is not recognized by any other country. But some, including Russia, Iran, and China, have noted the Taliban’s importance in maintaining regional stability. Having already worked with the Taliban to evacuate its citizens in August, the US is also considering coordinating with the Taliban to defeat IS-K, Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in September.
To gain international recognition and domestic legitimacy, the Taliban knows it must confront IS-K across Afghanistan. But doing so may mean disavowing some its more radical positions, thus risking another wave of defections from the Taliban to IS-K. At the same time, other forces, countries, or interested parties may be willing to support IS-K, directly or indirectly, to put pressure on the Taliban.
The threat posed by IS-K is not limited to Afghanistan. According to a West Point report, IS-K planned to attack US and NATO military bases in Germany before being thwarted by German authorities last year. Locked in conflict for the last 40 years, Afghanistan’s ongoing instability suggests IS-K may be difficult to eradicate. In its quest for desperately needed allies, the Taliban has little choice but to continue trying.
