US(Washington Insider Magazine)-While China openly declared that its relationship with Russia was, to quote Chinese Xi Jinping at the time, “No Limits,” it was always quite easy to say that until greater repercussions exist for maintaining a relationship of that variety. China has certainly aided Russia to the degrees that it can or feels comfortable with – given its own economic circumstances – as Russia continues to try to overrun and overtake a sovereign, internationally recognized nation under the guise of, amongst other things, domestic and national security as well as stopping neo-Nazis – even while using neo-Nazis – yet it cannot, nor does it wish to, bear all of that which Russia now has to unload with the international sanction yolk firmly around its neck.
China has been a firm ally to President Vladimir Putin and Russia over the years, as well as in the earlier stages of this conflict in Ukraine, but the repercussions of actually supporting this war of aggression as the months have gone on have been unattractive to China; they, like India, look to maintain strong economic and practical ties with Russia while avoiding being cast as abettors by the international community of nations. In the end, with enough collective pressure, they might even pressure Russia further into some conciliatory agreement; after all, foreign relations is all simply a matter of math, and of weighing the pros and cons of decisions and relationships accordingly. While Russia and China are allies, China makes an enormous amount of money from functioning as a part of the greater international community of which Russia is no longer a functioning member of, and in which it has never played as significant a part.
Russia is the most sanctioned nation in the world right now, and its actually not even very close. It has skyrocketed past other traditionally sanctioned nations like North Korea and Iran towards a position alone at the top, and sanctions continue to be applied. This innovation makes sense of course, as neither of those nations is currently – or has for several decades each – tried to invade their neighbor; even in those instances where they did, circumstances were a bit different than concerning Russia and Ukraine.
Furthermore, Russia’s economy is getting roasted. It is affecting large swaths of society, commerce, and industry, and, while these sanctions will not entirely stop this Russian war machine from trying to churn Ukraine into dust and nothingness this instant, the consequences of this prolonged and seemingly indefinite revocation of Russia from the international community will have profound and horrifying effects upon that nation and its people for decades going into the future. I have previously in fact, noted that when this conflict finally does end – either by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ousting or death, Ukraine’s domination or victory, or by negotiated ends somewhere between all of those options – the world will very obviously have to provide massive humanitarian relief to not only Ukraine’s population and society, but Russia’s as well.
China likely sees this all unfurling too, and they’re in no way naive. They see how Russia struggled with Ukraine at the start of this conflict, and how even after several months, things have not improved to such drastic levels that there are no concerns. On the contrary, Russia is now facing a mass of issues and pressures from their society, populace, military, economy and even media; they are in retreat, with an ineffective army that will be swelling by 300,000 unmotivated and frustrated Russians from across the country – and world in some instances. Intelligence officials across the world still do not see Russia coming out of this conflict stronger or with greater prestige than they entered it with, and the use of Soviet-era weaponry against Ukraine at this point does not encourage onlookers, any more than those aforementioned struggles.
China, as we’ve previously noted, has been helping and picking up some slack and benefiting from Russia and its predicament; energy resources have flowed from Russia to both China and India, albeit at cut-rate prices, while North Korea and Iran have aided where they can as well. Saudi Arabian-led OPEC production cuts are also seen as favoring Russia at this delicate international period as well.
It has not been anywhere near enough to sustain the Russian economy, however. Therefore, regarding China, while that “No Limits” declaration – made many months ago and reaffirmed at first with actions in the convening months – did not face much initial pushback, and has received a more sustained push over the last three to four months, China has been a disappointment to Moscow in many ways thus far.
With this observed and noted, more can be extrapolated. We might rightly ask, should increased pressure ever be put upon China for its Russian assistance by those that do business with it across the world, how then would that weigh upon the minds of the Chinese elite? The cost-benefit analysis of assisting Russia in this way – at the expense of losing valuable, corporate, and international economic friends and partners – is hardly a real analysis at all.
There are, of course, those figures who surely do not see a scenario where the world has the gall to make such a decision against China, the greatest practical manufacturer in the world, yet they likely assumed the same concerning European dependence on Russian energy resources. While Europe is continuing to work to overcome that painful dependency, it is doing so with increasingly less energy from Russia, and so, is showing character at this crucial moment in world history. This innovation should give cause for concern to a nation like China, which, as much as the world relies upon it for various needs and whatnot, also relies upon the world for business and revenue.
What happens when the already faltering Chinese economy is threatened by companies or nations who see how it aids and assists the Russian effort against Ukraine in limited capacities? Certainly this would occur were China to invade Taiwan. It might not seem inevitable as companies like the NBA and Apple continue to do business there, and as President after American President pays homage and respect to the often murderous and domineering monarchy of Saudi Arabia. Still, companies long persisted in Russia as their government became and behaved more and more authoritarian and illiberal, until they all of the sudden decided they no longer wished to; nothing is impossible, and China knows this regarding their relationship with Russia as well as their aforementioned ambitions concerning Taiwan.
There are always limits to economic and international relationships, and China also understands this as well as anyone. Companies leave nations after some unspoken limit has been reached and passed, and nations disassociate themselves with other nations after those same points have been reached. Nations like Kazakstan in the CSTO have reached that limit with Russia, and refuse to participate in the violence against Ukraine, or to help Russia avoid punishment for doing so. Eventually, one day – whether regarding this conflict or some other – China will also have to choose between multinational corporations and international diplomatic and economic mutuality and act as a sort of pressure release valve for Russia in the midst of their war and its repercussions.
And, when they do choose, and choose the rest of the world, it will not be because – in some manner or number of manners – China does not empathize with Russian motives and/or the historical implications of such a maneuver succeeding in the face of international opposition; certainly, China does, of course, still eye Taiwan, even as this writer does not see it as possible without great expense, loss of life and disconnection from the international community, or even probable given the international reaction vis-a-vis Russia and Ukraine.
No, China would only be further relenting because there are certainly limits to international relationships – some of which we have seen concerning Russia, and others we have yet to witness. But – in this hypothetical situation – with China losing the cooperation and capital of companies and nations across the world, they would not think twice about giving up Russia and the Russian market at that moment and for the time being in order to ensure that the economic ties that bond great swaths of the world and China together do not come undone.
This is not an unreasonable assertion to make at all, and as Russia continues to encounter interference and issues in its conquest of non-EU/NATO domestic neighbors in eastern Europe, China will continue to eye the limits of their no limits partnership warily. They will not go down with any metaphorical ship, whether it’s manned by Vladimir Putin or not, and Putin is not so naive as to not know this himself.
This is but a single of the many reasons Vladimir Putin so desperately needs to show that his nation can still do well in this war, and can still take Ukraine as easily as it and so much of the world imagined it could all those months ago; despite that he must win, it seems ever less likely that he can or will be able to, and his nuclear hints only illustrate this weakness further. He needs to prove Russia’s power, not only to the western nations, of which he deplores with all of his heart, and not only to the people of his nation, but to those allies like China, of what we might call the “alternative international community.” It is worth noting that many of those nations are there, outside of the traditional international community thanks to American intervention and protestation, and that American resolutions of many different issues could lead to a severe shrinking of that alternative bloc.
But, carrying on and in the final analysis, should Russia fail to be able to overcome a globally-backed Ukraine, China already has an alternative plan for Russia, I believe. While they are, in many ways, continuously looking to distance themselves in certain ways from Russia and from this conflict, they are remaining friendly and useful all the same; Russia, however, is actively in the process of withering away, and so, is being vassalized – even as they may not realize it themselves.
China doesn’t want – and will simply not appear willingly ever – to be on the losing side of any conflict, any more than they want to be disconnected from the international capital, diplomatic and greater economic community that it has grown so large and powerful within. They will help Russia as they feel comfortable – and have to date. They will continue to maintain generally close ties, but they will not do anything truly substantial to swing the conflict for their great friend, the Bear, either; they are, in many ways, letting Russia wilt, but will be there to rehabilitate and remedy that nation once its weak enough. At that point, China will become an even greater source of Russian goods and items, utilizing its incredible potential consumptive base for its own further commercial and industrial sustainability and growth.
China, at the end of the day, will always maintain its own prerogatives as more important than those of Russia – even if it means the economic subjugation of the Russian state by them at some point in time. However, as it stands today, regarding their relationship with Russia, China continues to show determination and commitment to a failed and flailing Russia and Vladimir Putin – if not entirely one of the “no limits” variety. It does this because of the many opportunities that Russia offers China, whether they remain in existence as they do or not. With that said, when China’s relationship with Russia looks as though it will begin to create limits for that nation and for its future ambitions, it can be assured that further limits will, as though by magic, be found, noted, and worked around in accordance with the best interests of the state moving forward – regardless of what has been previously said by government officials or even the President of China himself.
