CAPITOL HILL POLITICS (Washington Insider Magazine) – For a very long time, the congressional map favored the Republican party over the Democratic party. However, that may not be the case for much longer. Finally, after many years, this year’s congressional map is set to be the most balanced one in the 50 years. The districts are expected to be almost equal with a small preference favoring the Democratic party for the first time in 50 years.
It is estimated that between 216 to 219 districts appear to be likely tilting towards the Democratic party beliefs. This is out of the 435 total congressional districts nationwide. Similarly, the Republican party is also estimated to have between 216 and 219 districts edging toward their side.
To reach a majority, a political party would need to secure 218 districts. Even with the persistence of partisan gerrymandering, it seems like there will be a fairly close split when it comes to congressional districts. Many analysts believed that the Republican party would take the redistricting process as a chance to build an overwhelming advantage in the House of Representatives — just as they did just a decade ago.
Many were pleasantly surprised when they did not.
Through redistricting, it was believed that Republicans could flip the minimum 6 seats they needed to retake the majority in the House. Instead, we will see a more even spread, with a decline in the number of districts that supported Former President Donald J. Trump.
There has not been an advantage for the Democratic party in the House since the 1960s when the Supreme Court made the “one person, one vote” ruling, and enacted the Voting Rights Act which led to the modern era of redistricting.
Both parties drew the map with extreme gerrymanders that included twisting and turning district lines, which denied many communities representation in Congress for the purpose of political gain. Many of those holding offices were shielded from any serious challenges and even the number of competitive districts declined.
While previous redistricting ended with one party having more of an advantage over the other the extreme political ploys from both respective political offices have appeared to negate each other’s efforts. This was also helped by the fact that more states had maps drawn by the courts or by nonpartisan commissions than ever before.
This reduced the number of districts that could be drawn to give a party an advantage over another. The final map is not finished yet due to states like Florida, Missouri, Louisiana, and New Hampshire having yet to finish drawing their new district lines. For now, the Republican party does have a slight edge by just over 10 points with 186 — and while that does not seem like very much, those are much more secure than the Democrats’ 167.
In order for the Democratic party to obtain a majority, they will need roughly 60 percent of the remaining competitive districts. So, while the Republicans have the lead at the moment, it is still up in the air as to which party will ultimately take the majority.
