RUSSIA(Washington Insider Magazine) – When Russia invaded Ukraine over a month ago to date, they did so from both Russian and Belarusian borders – although Belarus is not officially involved in the matter. Yet for a nation that isn’t involved in a war, their President, Alexander Lukashenko, certainly has lots to say regarding the whole matter. He allowed Russian troops to invade that nation from his country, has made appearances and defended the actions of Russia, Vladimir Putin and himself, and has made numerous, dubious claims and declarations all the while as well.
While some other nations that usually align themselves with Russia and Vladimir Putin – like Armenia, Kazakhstan, and Azerbaijani – have decided to sit this one out so to speak, Belarus has been right there all the way to a point, and, while it says that fighting is ruled out for that nation, could yet join the war on the side of Russia reportedly, even as Belarusians fight on the side of the Ukrainians against Russia – who are sometimes flooding into Ukraine from their own nation. They are looking at it as fighting a fight that could very well spill over into their own desperate nation, and could burn Lukashenko in unintended or expected ways.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko is frankly a madman, and one that, only half a year ago or so, had a commercial aircraft taken down out of his nation’s airspace to arrest and break an anti-Lukashenko activist, dissident and protestor. He is an autocrat, plain and simple. While the European Union and much of the rest of the world were all horrified by this incident over Belarusian airspace, concerning a flight headed from Athens to Vilnius – and looked to punish Belarus and their President as a result – this is typical of how Europe’s last real dictator, perhaps second now, thinks and looks to operate.
He is perpetually drunk with power, having been entrenched for so long in that role and stature. The Belarusian President, a former member of the Belarusian Soviet before the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s, has ruled since only a few years after that, and the subsequent first post-Soviet government which he charged as being full of corruption from his seat in the government; subsequently running on an anti-corruption campaign, how could he not win?
And so Alexander Lukashenko has in every subsequent election since as well. His grip upon Belarus has seemed at times to be slipping, but all the while, he has adjusted and kept a hold of the power that he first attained so long ago. But now, in the midst of a rather large conflict in his regional neighborhood so to speak, in Ukraine concerning their allies, the Russians, his own use of force, should he decide to, might actually damage his hold further in a nation that is quite hungry for a better life such as can be found in the neighboring nation of Lithuania.
That, to my mind, is likely a reason among several that Belarus has yet to engage formally in this conflict as well. While they are being sanctioned along with Russia and the oligarchs and oligarchy of that nation and cooperating polities, they are only allowing Russia to work through their nation. This is because the society is sick of the Lukashenko regime and desperately wants its freedom, as the protests in Minsk and other large cities over a year and a half ago demonstrated vividly. While the Belarusian President shut those down with typical and predictable force and barbarism, shutting down protests is a lot different than killing the feelings of the people themselves.
There is a genuine feeling of disgust and wish for change across Belarus, and the moment that troops are spared for Putin’s war, is the moment that the Belarusians will take their chance regarding their national captors as well. While Vladimir Putin’s insane gamble has, thus far, proven embarrassing, costly and deadly for his nation, and while it has alienated many within that vast expansive nation, as well as nations on the Russian periphery like Finland, Sweden and others, it could yet see a major ally of the Russian President fall too. Should that occur, would the world see Russia pouring into Belarus to stabilize it as it is actively crumbling?
I think that is likely, but at that point, Russia would be in a far greater position of turmoil than it ever imagined possible during the planning phases of this so-called “special operation.” They would be attempting at that point to be holding the positions in the east of Ukraine that they have moved back to and are attempting to entrench themselves in, while at the same time, they would be spending their time in another nation that would want nothing to do with them, who would likely have the support of the Ukrainian nation and people behind them, fighting against them as the Russians attempted to remount the yolk upon the necks of the Belarusian people and society.
That sort of business for Russia would be a nightmare. Between economic, humanitarian and military cost, international perception and the massive, ever-expanding sanction regime that would be suffocating the nation to the best of its ability from the greater international community of nations, would be overwhelming for a state the economic size of Russia – which is currently shrinking as well. At that point, the costs of the war would have far outweighed the historical gains that Vladimir Putin sought for not only himself and his regime, but for the Russian nation and its history books as well; while the war as it stands today has weakened both Russia’s position in the international community of nations and its global perception, things could yet go further south for Russia given the right conditions.
While a circumstance like that would be a lot for the Russian government, what would it mean for Belarus? While Belarus will not likely be invited into the European Union anytime soon, nor would they likely be able to accept even should the Lukashenko regime somehow come to its end, a Belarus without Alexander Lukashenko would be a better place should his lackeys not somehow be able to maintain some type of grip upon the power in that nation. As Ukraine is an example of, even a nation so close to Russia and its pervasive influence can move itself away from a pro-Putin leader given the right opportunities; this conflict in Ukraine, should the President of Belarus slip up, might just be that event that acts as the nation’s dislodging catalyst.
Russia would quite likely look to greedily protect the Lukashenko regime however, and so Belarus would be in for a sizable fight. Were the military still loyal to the government and regime of their autocrat, the type of conflict that would then erupt could be very guerrilla in nature, and could see local and global participation as this conflict in neighboring Ukraine has witnessed, but there are no certainties that the military would be especially loyal to “Batka” – father – as his most loyal supporters refer to him as. While he has his supporters in large supply surely, there are as surely as many or more people who have grown tired of the stagnancy of Belarus during his regime, the repression and the suffering that go on in that nation.
How the international world would respond to that circumstance is anyone’s guess, but one might imagine that guerrillas and insurgents might be armed, fighters from across the region and globe might join the fray, and simply another battlefield between progress and repression would open upon the international landscape. While no official, direct aid would likely be afforded to fighters of that conflict in Belarus, it is easy to understand given what has occurred in Ukraine and across the world in other circumstances that workarounds do exist where this is concerned.
Yet the downfall of Alexander Lukashenko will one day happen, that is assured, as nothing lasts forever of course. However, how soon it happens cannot be known for certain. As the current conflict in Ukraine continues to unfurl itself, Russia must look for an out for itself with ever more vigor and desperation even. It cannot last in a forever conflict as the United States has – even with great and grave costs – in the past. Russia is not economically secure enough – before sanctions – to operate in this way, and they certainly are not now post-new sanction regime application.
The longer they stay in Ukraine, no matter if they can technically sustain themselves across that time, the worse the circumstances in both Russia and Ukraine will get.
For Belarus too, depending on your perspective of course, this war can either go on and distract Belarus from its internal strife, or it should end as soon as possible, as Belarus gains very little materially from a Russian victory in the conflict in the greater sense; but to be sure, just as Vladimir Putin has set himself on a course towards the end of his time in charge of a nation, so too has Alexander Lukashenko in Belarus, and oh, how the people do deserve it.
