PARIS (Washington Insider Magazine) – Even though France’s capital is thousands of miles distant from the eastern Ukraine battleground, what transpired in French polling stations this month might have ramifications there.
Marine Le Pen, a far-right presidential contender with deep ties to Russia, wants to undermine NATO and the European Union, potentially weakening Western attempts to stop Russia’s aggression in Ukraine. Le Pen is attempting to remove centrist President Emmanuel Macron, who has a small lead in projections ahead of France’s presidential final election on April 24.
Here are a few ways the French poll might affect the Ukraine conflict:
SOFTEN SANCTIONS
Le Pen’s strategy has effectively exploited French voter dissatisfaction with growing prices as a result of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan to attack Ukraine and the following Western sanctions on Russia, a key gas supplier and trading ally for France and Europe.
The European Union has come together in an uncommonly united manner to agree on 5 rounds of ever harsher penalties on Russia. If elected president of France, Le Pen might try to reject or restrict further EU measures, which require unanimous support from the bloc’s 27 member states.
After Germany, France would be the EU’s second-largest economy and a crucial player in EU decision-making. France currently also retains the rotational EU presidency, giving the country’s future president tremendous clout.
Le Pen is a vocal opponent of Russian oil and gas sanctions. She has previously stated that she would strive to repeal sanctions placed on Russia as a result of its invasion of Crimea, and that she would also recognise Crimea as territory of Russia.
PROVIDE WEAPONS TO UKRAINE
In recent days, Macron’s administration has supplied 100 million euros in weapons to Ukraine, and on Wednesday he said that he will deliver even more as part of a Western tactical support operation. From 2014, since Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine and backed separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine, France has been a key supplier of military aid for Ukraine.
On Wednesday, Le Pen raised doubts about providing further weapons to Ukraine. She added that if elected as president, she will continue to provide information and defense assistance, but that she would be “prudent” about delivering weapons since she believes that such shipments may entice other nations to join Russia’s fight.
REBUILD TIES WITH PUTIN
Macron attempted to reach out to Putin initially during his first term, inviting him to Versailles and also a presidential estate on the Mediterranean in the hopes of moving Russia’s policies closer to those of the West.
The French president also attempted to reignite peace negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow on the long-running war in eastern Ukraine between both the administration and rebels supported by Russia. Macron paid a visit to Putin at the Kremlin days before Russia’s attack on Ukraine on February 24, and has maintained contact with him throughout the conflict. Simultaneously, Macron has backed a series of EU sanctions against Russia.
Russia is a close ally of Le Pen’s party. She met with Vladimir Putin in 2017 as a French presidential contender and has previously complimented him. She is greeted enthusiastically at Russian Embassy gatherings in Paris, and her far-right party received a 9 million-euro ($9.8 million) credit from a Czech-Russian bank when French banks declined to loan the party funds, according to her.
The crisis in Ukraine has somewhat changed Le Pen’s attitude towards Putin, but she stated on Wednesday that after the conflict is over, the West must strive to rebuild ties with Russia. She proposed a “strategic rapprochement” between Russia and NATO in order to prevent Moscow from becoming too close to China.
WEAKENING EU AND NATO
While Macron is an ardent supporter of the EU and has reaffirmed France’s involvement in NATO activities in Eastern Europe, Le Pen believes France should maintain its independence from foreign coalitions.
She advocates France’s expulsion from NATO’s military leadership, which would remove French military personnel from the planning body and result in the nation losing power inside the Western military coalition.
In 1966, after French President Charles de Gaulle intended to remove his nation from the US-dominated alliance, France left NATO’s command system, only to rejoin in 2009 under conservative President Nicolas Sarkozy.
If she had her way, Le Pen would cut French expenditure on the EU and strive to weaken the bloc’s authority by chipping away from the inside, refusing to recognise that European law supersedes national law.
