France (Washington Insider Magazine) – France votes in one of its most significant elections in years on Sunday, with the far right hoping for a historic victory, but political stalemate is the more likely result. Despite this ambition, a political deadlock is potential.
Far Right’s Historic Opportunity
For the first time, the anti-immigration RN, led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, has a realistic chance of governing and potentially controlling the National Assembly. Following the RN’s first-round success in last Sunday’s snap parliamentary elections, many rival candidates have withdrawn to improve their chances of defeating the far right.
Voting Process and Immediate Concerns
According to BBC, Polling stations in mainland France will open at 08:00 (06:00 GMT), with the first exit polls expected 12 hours later. Regardless of the results, President Emmanuel Macron faces significant political challenges. The decision to call a snap election came after the RN’s victory in European elections, prompted by Bardella’s challenge to Macron.
Heightened Security Amid Political Tension
The two-round election has heightened political tensions, coinciding with preparations for the Paris Olympics starting on July 26. With 30,000 police deployed, there are concerns about potential violence in Paris and other cities, leading to a ban on a planned protest outside the National Assembly on Sunday evening.
Local Impact and Public Sentiment
In Dreux, a historic town on the route to Normandy, the election coincides with the arrival of the Olympic flame, overshadowing the vote for some residents. The flame’s journey around France has been a significant event, and Dreux has planned a weekend of celebrations for its arrival.
Electoral Dynamics and Key Contests
Several prominent RN figures, including Le Pen and Bardella, have already secured their seats by winning more than half the votes. However, around 500 races remain to be decided in run-offs, often involving two or three candidates. Withdrawals by 217 candidates from various parties have shifted the election’s dynamics significantly.
Predictions and Possible Outcomes
Initial projections suggested the RN had an opportunity to secure an outright majority of 289 seats, but recent polls indicate this is unlikely, with a maximum of 210 seats predicted. Parties opposing the RN, from the radical left to centrists and conservatives, aim to protect the Fifth Republic from far-right policies.
RN’s Policy Adjustments and Potential Alliances
While the RN has moderated some policies, it still proposes controversial measures such as “national preference” for jobs and housing and restrictions on citizenship and sensitive jobs for dual nationals. If the RN wins over 250 seats, it might seek allies to form a minority government, though this is considered unlikely.
Coalition Talks and Future Government Scenarios
A “grand coalition” involving most parties, excluding the radical France Unbowed (LFI) party, is one potential outcome, although it faces resistance. Another option is a technocrat government, possibly including politicians with specific expertise, akin to Italy’s eurozone crisis response.
Navigating Uncharted Territory
France is entering uncertain times, with President Macron expected to remain in office but facing diminished legitimacy. Constitutional expert Benjamin Morel suggests a national unity government could be established to manage the country through the Paris Olympics, providing time for parties to reach agreements.
This election will shape France’s immediate political landscape and its ability to govern effectively during the upcoming Olympic Games.
