NEW YORK (Washington Insider Magazine) – When state legislators began redrawing congressional boundaries, Democrats braced for disaster, anticipating that Republican control of statehouses would shift control far from them for another decade.
However, as the redistricting procedure nears completion, that worry is fading.
The worst-case scenario for Democrats, which would see them lose well over a dozen positions in the House of Representatives, is unlikely. Some Democrats predict that after some assertive map-drawing of their own in regions with Democratic legislative bodies, the fairly typical congressional seat will switch from tilting to the right of the federal vote to aligning it, ending a disturbance that has given the GOP an automatic advantage in the last five House elections.
The congressional maps will not be finalized for some months. Republicans in certain large states, including Florida, have yet to finalize planned amendments, giving them a chance to gain an advantage at the last minute.
However, when New York’s redistricting commission presents a second attempt to draw a map to the state legislature this week, the picture may become clearer. If the Democratic-controlled state legislature opposes the map, it will be able to design new lines in their favor. This would almost probably mitigate the GOP edge that has existed since the 2010 redistricting process.
The wrangling in state capitals has ramifications beyond Democrats’ tough battle to keep their House majority in this year’s upcoming elections. For the rest of the decade, it will have an impact on the overall political balance in Washington and state legislatures.
Analysts warn that in the event of a landslide election, Democrats may lose far more places in the maps they’ve constructed since they’ve scattered their supporters so thin. And, if political alliances evolve in the future years, seats Democrats believed they had a chance to win might vanish overnight.
The Democratic campaign comes after the party failed to pass a nationwide ban on partisan gerrymandering — their elections measure against the practice died in the House last week due to a Republican filibuster. According to NBC News, Democrats are continuing gerrymandering in states they govern, sometimes violently, as in Illinois, and other times more subtly, as in Oregon and New Mexico.
Experts, on the other hand, claim that Republicans, who govern more states, have significantly gerrymandered in states like Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas. However, the state Supreme Court recently threw out the GOP’s Ohio plans, and Democrats are hoping that the state’s high court will do the same with the districts in North Carolina, which is probably the main reason for the party’s renewed optimism.
