Russia (Washington Insider Magazine) -Following the 2011 Fukushima disaster, the Japanese government vowed to radically reduce nuclear energy production. This decision was mirrored by numerous European states, and over the next several years, many of the world’s nuclear power plants were partially or completely shut down. But continual conflict in the Middle East, rising oil and natural gas prices, and the immaturity of the renewables market have reignited nuclear energy demand.
Last week, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida stated his intention to bring the country’s shuttered nuclear industry back online. Almost simultaneously, France, the EU’s leading nuclear energy producer, led a group of nine other EU states in asking the European Commission to recognize nuclear power as a green energy source to ease the transition to climate neutrality.
The focus on oil, gas, and renewable energy, however, has resulted in years of neglect for much of the world’s nuclear industries. 20 of France’s 58 nuclear power plants were temporarily shut in 2016 over safety concerns, while its major nuclear power company, Areva, was restructured into several different companies the same year.
Westinghouse, a major US nuclear company, declared bankruptcy in 2017 after cost overruns for both its domestic and overseas contracts. South Korea’s Korean Electric Power Corporation’s (Kepco) has meanwhile suffered from numerous safety concerns at its nuclear sites and with foreign reactor exports, while corruption scandals have further tainted its image.
The weaknesses plaguing foreign competition have allowed Chinese and Russian state-owned companies to expand their influence. And though China’s primary focus has been meeting domestic energy demand, Russia has been able to drastically increase its exports of nuclear power technology. Rosatom, Russia’s state-owned nuclear energy company created in 2007, is now the world’s only integrated nuclear firm and the most influential actor in the market.
Though only 4th in worldwide nuclear power production, this figure belies Russia’s true influence over the international industry. Through Rosatom and its subsidiaries, Russia is responsible for 20% of the world’s uranium conversion and 43% of its uranium enrichment.
But the key to Rosatom’s success has been its nuclear reactor exports. Rosatom’s funding and operational centralization allows it to offer all-in-one deals on financing, construction, training, uranium supply, and waste management. Between 2000 and 2015, Russia is estimated to have sold more nuclear technology abroad than the US, France, China, South Korea, and Japan combined, with reactors forming a core part of that.
With 19 firmly planned foreign projects and an additional 14 proposed, Rosatom has roughly $140 billion in contracts for the next ten years. Reactors also require long-term maintenance and uranium supply agreements that make typical contracts last up to 50 years – with the possibility of further extension.
In both Russia’s backyard and further abroad, Rosatom has seized the initiative. Kazakhstan and Russia revealed in 2019 a proposed site for a nuclear power plant had been chosen, while Rosatom began construction on Uzbekistan’s first nuclear reactor later that year. Four reactors are scheduled for completion in 2028 and 2030, which will account for almost a fifth of Uzbekistan’s projected growing electricity consumption.
Rosatom is currently finalizing construction of a second Belarusian nuclear reactor after the first came online earlier this year. However, Rosatom’s true ambition in Europe is to expand its influence in the EU, which generates over a quarter of its electricity from nuclear power. This will help offset Russia’s reliance on oil and gas revenues as Europe works towards a carbon-free and affordable energy future.
Hungary, which generates roughly half of its electricity from nuclear power, already receives its nuclear fuel from Russia. In 2014, it struck an agreement with Rosatom to help build two new reactors, pending final approval. Rosatom is also finalizing plans to build Finland’s first nuclear reactor, as well as Bulgaria’s third nuclear reactor after talks with the US’ Westinghouse fell apart.
Asia’s growing appetite for energy has attracted Moscow’s attention, and even as China has rapidly expanded its nuclear energy capabilities, it has actively sought out Russia’s expertise. In 2018, the two countries signed a strategic agreement jointly construct four nuclear power plants in China, while future supply deals for radionuclide heat units (UHR) to power equipment in China’s space program demonstrate the broad array of products Rosatom has to offer.
Because of China’s growing nuclear energy independence, however, Rosatom is looking to the potential of the enormous Indian market for future demand. Two Russian-built reactors in India have been operational since 2014 and 2017, with three more currently under construction and several others being discussed.
Rosatom is also building two nuclear reactors in neighboring Bangladesh, scheduled for completion by 2025. In 2011, Russia and Vietnam struck a deal for construction of a nuclear Centre and Rosatom has pledged to begin building Vietnam’s first nuclear power plant in 2023. Additionally, Rosatom has discussed building a small experimental reactor in Indonesia and making the Philippines’ built but never used power plant operational.
Across the resource-rich Middle East, Rosatom has also been busy over the last few years. It is competing with US, French, Chinese, and South Korean companies to build the first of two nuclear power plants in Saudi Arabia, alongside talks with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for uranium supply and nuclear energy agreements with Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco.
In Turkey, Rosatom has begun construction of the the first of four reactors to be built by 2023. Egypt agreed in 2015 to allow Rosatom to construct the country’s first nuclear power plant with four reactors, with the first unit scheduled to come online in 2026. And after years of delays dating back to the 1990s, Rosatom was able to get Iran’s first nuclear reactor online in 2011. Rosatom has since begun construction on two more reactors in Iran, scheduled for completion in 2027-2028.
The rapidly growing population across sub-Saharan Africa has also expanded Rosatom’s options. Unlike other major powers, Russia’s pledge to import energy rather than export Africa’s natural resources has brought enthusiasm and approval from across the continent.
Rwanda signed a deal with Rosatom to develop a Nuclear Center for Science and Technology in 2019, including a small, water-cooled reactor. In 2017. Rosatom signed a deal with Nigeria to construct the country’s first nuclear power plant and a nuclear research center, as well as a nuclear research and technology center in Zambia.
The company has also signed agreements over the last decade with the Republic of Congo, Sudan, Ethiopia, Ghana and Uganda for the development of nuclear power, in addition to uranium projects in Namibia and Tanzania. Earlier this year, Burundi approached Rosatom to help it develop its first nuclear plant.
To solidify its future appeal, Rosatom is experimenting with new reactor types. The first, a “fast-breeder” reactor, recycles nuclear fuel and generates 10-100 times more energy than boiling water or pressurized-water reactors. Russia’s BN-600 is the world’s only commercially operating fast-breeder reactor, and the company is now building a BN-800 reactor and a BN-1200.
Rosatom also announced in 2019 that it would be constructing a molten salt research reactor, which would help alleviate concerns over nuclear waste. But the true litmus test of Rosatom’s ambitions will rest on its ability to make nuclear power transportable. In late 2019, Rosatom successfully moved a floating nuclear power plant, the Akademik Lomonosov, from Russia’s northwestern port city of Severodvinsk to the eastern Siberian port town of Pevek.
Replacing a coal-burning power plant and supplying electricity to the 50,000 people, the Lomonosov shows the potential to deliver nuclear power around the world. Rosatom plans to build four more floating nuclear power plants by the end of the decade, while its overseas sales of nuclear technology are meanwhile expected to rise from 47% of the world’s total in 2016 to over 2/3 by 2030.
Rosatom’s strategy is not bulletproof. Russia has extended billions of dollars in credit for foreign projects at a time when its economy is strained, and even before coronavirus, many were behind schedule. Any failure to adequately transport and store nuclear waste could also quickly upend Rosatom’s operations around the world.
Nonetheless, Rosatom’s future looks bright. Its success stems both from its own expertise and the vacuum left by Western nuclear energy companies. Washington would be wise to refocus its attention towards developing its own nuclear industry to prevent China and Russia from dominating it in the 21st Century.
