USA (Washington Insider Magazine)—A new report from the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) warns of a looming shortage of up to 86,000 physicians in the United States by 2036. The findings emphasize the urgent need for expanded investment in medical education and residency training to address growing healthcare demands.
Key Drivers of the Shortage
- Aging Population:
By 2036, the US population is projected to grow by 8.4%, with a significant increase in older age groups. The population aged 65+ is expected to rise by 34.1%, and those 75+ by 54.7%. Older adults typically require more frequent healthcare services, driving a surge in demand for physicians, especially specialists. - Physician Retirements:
A significant portion of the workforce is nearing retirement age. Currently, 20% of practicing physicians are aged 65 or older, and an additional 22% are between 55 and 64. These trends suggest a sharp decline in physician availability over the next decade. - Underserved Communities:
The report highlights that if underserved populations had access to healthcare at the same rate as others, an additional 202,800 physicians would have been needed as of 2021, further underscoring the gap in equitable care access.
A Call for Action
AAMC President and CEO David J. Skorton, MD, stressed the importance of sustained investment in graduate medical education (GME). “If we fail to increase investments in training new physicians, the shortfall will exceed current projections,” said Skorton.
The report highlights bipartisan legislation like the Resident Physician Shortage Reduction Act, which proposes adding 14,000 Medicare-supported residency positions over seven years. This initiative aims to build on prior Congressional investments to expand and diversify the physician workforce.
Progress and Challenges
While medical schools have increased enrollment by nearly 40% since 2002, the federal cap on Medicare support for residency training limits the number of physicians entering the workforce. Advocacy efforts have secured some progress, such as new residency positions in rural and underserved areas, but significant gaps remain.
AAMC Chief Healthcare Officer Jonathan Jaffery, MD, emphasized the real-world implications: “People nationwide struggle to find primary care physicians and specialists. These shortages directly impact families, communities, and patient outcomes.”
The Path Forward
Expanding GME funding, lifting Medicare caps, and supporting legislation like H.R. 2389/S. 1302 are critical steps toward addressing the shortage. However, even with these measures, meeting future healthcare needs will require further strategic investments and policy changes.
“Medical schools have done their part,” said Skorton. “Now, we must ensure graduate medical education keeps pace with our country’s healthcare demands.”
The AAMC continues to advocate for systemic changes to ensure access to care for all Americans.
