(Washington Insider Magazine) – A recent report by the University of Chicago’s Project on Security & Threats (CPost) indicates a surge in American support for political violence as the 2024 election cycle intensifies. The June federal indictment of Donald Trump appears to be a significant factor, with 18 million Americans now believing force may be justified to restore him to office—a marked increase from previous months.
Professor Robert Pape, leading the research, notes this radical shift isn’t exclusive to Trump supporters. While approximately 7% of Americans, many of whom believe the 2020 election was stolen, now endorse violence to reinstate Trump, left-wing radicals are also showing heightened support for force. Support for violence to push lawmakers on abortion rights has grown, reflecting broader frustration on both sides of the political divide.
Pape cautions that while public sentiment may be radicalizing, it alone is insufficient to trigger violence. The right conditions—a rallying message or act of incitement—could ignite widespread action, as seen during the January 6 Capitol riot.
The survey underscores the complex and volatile environment shaping the 2024 campaign. Trump’s favorability has slightly declined among Republicans, yet his influence remains profound. Many Trump supporters perceive ongoing legal actions as politically motivated, fostering distrust in federal institutions. The “Dangers to Democracy” survey also reveals that nearly 90% of his most radical backers believe in a “deep state” conspiracy, a core tenet of the QAnon theory.
While both Trump and President Joe Biden are viewed as polarizing figures, respondents rated Trump as a more significant threat to democracy by a margin of 52% to 33%. This data highlights the heightened tensions as Americans brace for a pivotal election amid escalating political polarization.
Support for violence among Democrats, particularly to pressure Congress on abortion rights, rose notably. An estimated 44 million now endorse such action. This convergence of grievances from both sides suggests a concerning trend as the election season heats up, with indictments against Trump likely to fuel further radicalization.
With early debates and primaries on the horizon, Pape warns that “we haven’t even reached the peak of the 2024 election season, yet support for political violence is already climbing.” This report, backed by various organizations, including the Anti-Defamation League and the Pritzker Military Foundation, signals a need for urgent efforts to address this widening rift in American democracy.
