(Washington Insider Magazine)-Looking for the latest congressional predictions? You’re in the right place.
As the 2022 midterm elections for the United States approach, all eyes are intently monitoring a plethora of fluctuating predictions regarding the outcomes. What is the consensus thus far, and can those predictions be trusted?
Presently, the United States executive and legislative arms are a Democratic majority with Joe Biden as the sitting Democratic president, the US Senate – although a 50/50 split – is considered a Democratic majority with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote, and the US House of Representatives is a just barely a Democratic majority with 220 out of 435 seats.
With a razor-thin disparity of representation between the two parties, tensions are running high since much is at stake. If the Democrats maintain control of congress, they will continue to support the Biden agenda for the next two years. Conversely, if the Republicans take control of one or both houses of congress, Biden’s agenda will essentially come to a screeching halt.
Election predictions are typically derived from pollsters, professional election forecasters, and bettors.
Pollsters have traditionally been the de facto standard for predicting election results. Unfortunately, pollsters took a serious beating in the 2016 presidential election for getting it all wrong when the unlikely presidential candidate Donald J. Trump won in a landslide victory.
Today, pollsters are collectively unclear on how the Senate majority will play out, largely because the results are dependent on the demographic polled. Interestingly, most pollsters confidently predict that the House will overwhelmingly shift to a Republican majority.
Professional election forecasters are likewise predicting a 50/50 split of the Senate with the caveat that it could swing in either direction in the days leading up to November 8th. As for the House, the Republicans are also predicted to win the majority.
Recently, betting sites and betting apps have surprisingly demonstrated more accurate predictions of elections than either pollsters or forecasters, reasoning that bettors are more focused on understanding issues than the average citizen before waging their hard-earned money.
Presently, bettors are predicting a 69% chance of a Republican majority in the Senate and an 89% chance of a Republican sweep of the House of Representatives.
It’s clear that most predictions point to a low chance for a decisive Democratic victory in the congressional midterms and a near-certain victory for the Republicans this year.
