PARIS (Washington Insider Magazine) – President Emmanuel Macron will battle Marine Le Pen in a presidential run coming Sunday, 5 years after a decisive win over the far-right contender. Polls show a much closer contest this year, despite widespread dissatisfaction with a rerun that voters have long maintained they don’t want.
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The 2nd phase of France’s most important election is meant to represent the pinnacle of French democracy, when the majority of the country rallies around a vision, an agenda, or a personality. Even by the poor standards of a traditionally melancholy and rebellious society, all indicators point to a profoundly dissatisfied democracy halfway through this year’s 2-round election.
After a flawed campaign and 5 chaotic years highlighted by violent demonstrations and Covid shutdowns, pollsters predict a record level of absenteeism in the Apr 24 run-off. Many people claim they were forced to pick “the lesser of 2 evils,” and university students have begun to occupy campuses in outrage of the election’s initial round results.
In round one April 10, a quarter of the total of the French population skipped the polls, the biggest amount since the political tsunami that propelled Jean-Marie Le Pen into the 2nd round in 2002. After a weak campaign clouded by the crisis in Ukraine and handicapped by a noticeably absent leader, many anticipated far more voters to refrain.
A study conducted by Ifop before round one indicated that 80% of French citizens thought the campaign had been of poor standard. According to a study conducted by Ipsos-Sopra Steria, 55% were upset, with 37% expressing outright anger.
Until the most recent presidential election in 2017, attendance in the final round tended to rise as the nation divided into 2 wide groups, generally along a left-right division. In what was once a bipolar system, the system performed quite effectively. The emergence of the far right, though, has thrown the balance off.
The first round’s outcomes revealed the formation of 3 groups with about equal merit: a center-right group centered on President Emmanuel Macron, a far-right group led by Marine Le Pen, and a dispersed left that strove – and almost failed – to avoid a repeat of the 2017 election.
According to Haute, who noted the voting in the distressed northern province of Roubaix, where Mélenchon received over 50% of the poll, that botched attempt attributed for the delayed spike in backing for senior leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon as well as the higher turnout in areas in which he performed best.
Many of Mélenchon’s backers are worried that since he is out of the election, they would boycott the next phase, feeling betrayed. New voters, whose favorite contender was the seasoned leftist, have expressed a strong sentiment of lack of options throughout France.
The 2 finalists received below 50% of the votes given by individuals between 18 to 35 combined. For several young adults, the left’s exclusion from the second phase implies that concerns that are important to them – namely climate change, women’s rights, minorities’ rights, as well as education rights – have been ignored.
It’s not only the fact that their chosen representatives and subjects aren’t available. Amidst her great attempts at standardization and her own successes among the student vote, Le Pen has an aversion to large large sections of French voters, both young and old. Many people now believe they only have a single choice in the run-off, robbing them of the core of democracy: choice.
Simultaneously, with its outbursts over “Islamo-leftism” and “woke” notions in academia, Macron’s administration has estranged many young people. In the opinion of some, the state repression of protests has blurred the boundary between extreme right and mainstream, boosting the adoption of the phrase “Neither Macron, nor Le Pen.”
As a result, several young voters are expected to refrain on April 24, however Haute stressed that it should not be mistaken for a disinterest in politics.
According to Haute, by demonstrating before the run-off, French youngsters are delivering a message to Macron, telling him that if he is re-elected, they will not drop their guard.
Throughout Macron’s first year in office, talk of reviving French democracy was a recurring subject. It was at the core of the Yellow Vest uprising that shook his administration and sparked discussion about democratic change.
One of the Yellow Vests’ distinguishing characteristics was their quest to rebuild democracy by freeing it from the influence of corrupt institutions and parties.
Mélenchon was able to unify swathes of the Yellow Vest rebellion under his flag by promising to summon a constituent assembly entrusted with crafting a fresh constitution for France — and bring in a 6th Republic to substitute the present one. It also attracted supporters who were dissatisfied with the seasoned leftist’s controversial personality yet wanted to remove France’s “presidential monarchy.”
Paul Alliès, a political science professor at the University of Montpellier who has long advocated for a 6th Republic, believes that increased absenteeism and rising violent demonstrations are the result of a defective system that places too much authority and focus on the president. He went on to say that the conclusion of this imbalanced arrangement is a legislature that is absolutely impotent.
Critics of General Charles de Gaulle’s presidential position have long highlighted to fundamental flaws in France’s 5th Republic: presidents controlling from their ivory towers, answerable to nobody and; parliaments deprived of power and leadership, limited to rubber-stamping the Élysée Palace’s commands; and prime ministers named and brushed aside at the president’s mercy, and immediately blamed if things go bad.
Macron’s failure to recognise a “negative mandate” has caused him to abandon the concept of a “republican front,” a unified front of electors of all shades which has prevented the extreme right from out of office at the federal level and, in the bulk of instances, at the local scale.
Macron questioned the importance of the “republican front” in his resounding victory in 2017, claiming that 66 percent of French citizens selected him and his agenda, as he resumed the campaign road early Monday. It’s a hazardous plan, according to Haute, who points out that Macron has to woo left-wing supporters who are wary of voting for him again.
Macron’s aggressive demeanor and right-wing agenda have enraged many left-wing supporters. Many people have been left feeling constrained by the sense that he did everything in his capacity to manufacture a repetition of the uneven election of 2017, presenting the election as a battle between both the nationalist extremists and the liberal majority.
After he accepted defeat on April 10, Mélenchon personally asked voters not to give Le Pen any vote, reiterating the injunction 4 times. However, he has refused to endorse Macron, as a party poll released this week revealed that 33% of members want to vote for the incumbent, with the remainder planning to abstain, leaving their ballot empty, or ruin it.
The result of Sunday’s poll will mainly be determined if these voters can transcend their dissatisfaction and commit to a “vote barrage” against the extreme right once more. While polls suggest Macron will win, tremendous discontent and rage make a “political accident” a definite possibility.
