(Washington Insider Magazine) – The Islamic Republic of Iran has existed since the Revolution of 1978/79, and during that time it has had only two Supreme Leaders running it. Both were famous revolutionaries of their country – the first, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was the ultimate leader of that revolution, while the second, Ayatollah Ali Khameini, one of Khomeini’s most trusted confidants and supporters, has led the nation as the Supreme Leader since the former’s passing in 1989. Yet as the latter now nears his 83rd birthday come the 19th of April, and the Republic continues to work through their own domestic shortcomings and struggles, COVID-19, as well as the sanctions and the mess that has transpired since the United States pulled itself out of the multilateral JCPOA in 2018, it is worth considering who might next hold the post of Supreme Leader of Iran, both for the domestic, as well as the international implications.
I have written before that many believe that Ebrahim Raisi, the current hardliner, Principlist President of that nation, is likely to fill this roll next and, according to different sources, is the handpicked successor of the current leader of the country. This might be so, and should it be, then he will be positioned just as Khamenei himself was during the 1980s, ruling as President until the time came for him to take over for the late Ruhollah Khomeini; yet the differences between the first two Supreme Leaders – Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei – and Ebrahim Raisi, are as stark and alarming as are their collective similarities.
As I have discussed further in that and other previous essays, Raisi does not have anywhere near the Islamic or practical education that either the previous Ayatollahs – nor most of the previous Presidents – have had. Raisi seems to be a man obsessed with power and his status as a Sayyid – denoted by the black turban that sits upon his head, a sign of his lineage of which, allegedly, can be traced back to the Prophet Muhammad himself – but not one entirely obsessed with all of the nuance or details of either Islam or politics in general. He wishes to, in the minds of some, further the top-to-bottom Islamisation of the nation in a way that was never achieved in the first decades after the revolution.
Should he eventually be made Supreme Leader of Iran by the highly reactionary and grossly perverted Assembly of Experts that Ali Khamenei has, during his reign, made entirely subordinate to him, despite that they aren’t necessarily subservient to him under the nation’s constitution, it will signify the country’s further prevarication from modernity, innovation, as well as societal development and influences; there is to be sure, however, little to say concretely at this time that Raisi will be the successor to Khamenei.
The Assembly might, in fact, choose someone else. Rumor at one time circulated that the Assembly could even pick a small group of leaders instead of one single leader to replace the fallen Ali Khamenei. More reasonably I imagine, they might choose a Principlist of a different intellectual strain than Raisi, which might include a number of highly respected religious figures within and across Iran as well. Reformers, a former President, or a number of highly respected religious figures within and across Iran on the other idealogical end of the spectrum are possible too, despite the makeup of this democratically elected, but vetted, Assembly, yet no one should get their hopes up too high at this particular moment. While so much is made regarding the current state of the American-Iranian relationship, especially as the two sides look set to restart some version of the JCPOA in the near future, it will be the next Supreme Leader of Iran that sets the pace for the next 30 to 40 years of international relations, as well as of the potential domestic and social innovations across that time.
In my opinion, one of the better choices would be the former diplomat to Europe, lead nuclear negotiator for a time, and former Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani, who, while lacking in certain ways to be sure, worked hard to put Iran into the JCPOA in the first place. Had things with that deal gone better, even with the COVID-19 pandemic unknowingly looming in the not-so-distant future at that time, the feeling within Iran might have been different in the leadup to the Presidential Elections of last year. A ravaged economy – the result of both external, as well as internal, mistakes – the JCPOA betrayal by the US, despite Iran’s acquiescence, mass opiate addiction and the added strain of COVID and all of those COVID related deaths took a collective toll upon Rouhanni, as they have upon so many leaders before him.
With the derision he has received at home over the last year, year and a half, however, I am not sure that he is quite beloved enough a choice to be appointed to the position. Should I be incorrect, or should things change in time with the revisited JCPOA back in place, then I think that Iran would be getting a Supreme Leader who can guide Iran through a period of real growth, development, international cooperation and economic, as well as social, innovations. He would be a breath of fresh air in comparison to either of his predecessors in that position or to Raisi for that matter who, as has been written about endlessly and quite rightfully, is responsible for overseeing a political massacre in Tehran in 1988.
Other choices for the role of Supreme Leader remain, however, and they are varied and various. Guardian Council and Assemblymember Sayyid Ahmad Khatami is said to be a name that has been considered, although all names and intimations are always kept close to the breast of Iranian intellectual and political society as the subject of succession remains, as is widely noted, strictly taboo. Should names like Raisi and Khatami make the list, and Rouhani does too, then another two or three names that should be considered to be, for one reason or another, in the running might be Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the current Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, another member of the Assembly of Experts, and Sayyid Hassan Khomeini, the eldest grandson of the founder of the Iranian Islamic Republic.
Sayyid Ahmad Khatami is another Principlist like Raisi, and is someone who is thought highly of intellectually within the government of Iran already. He has previously endorsed the fatwa as a tool, disrespected the Pope on religious grounds, and has previously been unsympathetic towards protestors over the years. Yet one cannot know the exact hierarchy of Principlist voices for certain, and if it has anything to do with what the current leader would like, then the succession question becomes even harder to ascertain in the present and for the future.
But Ayatollah Mohsen Araki could very well be close to the top of that hierarchy, if one truly exists. He is an intriguing, unnerving, as well as questionable, choice for Supreme Leader as the former student of the Iraqi Islamic intellectual Mohammad Baqir al-Sadr. He sits upon the Assembly of Experts, leads and lectures at Iranian Universities, and, like Ebrahim Raisi, is considered to have committed gross human rights violations in years gone by. These Fundamentalist and Principlist voices, noticeable in the higher echelons of Iranian politics, are certainly disconcerting from an outside perspective, and from what some polling indicates, from an internal perspective too; Araki, Khatami and Raisi are by no means the only choices of this type or ilk, however.
The son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supposedly financially well-off cleric and Sayyid Mojtaba Khamenei, noted for his support for former sometimes conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is, like Ebrahim Raisi, not noted for his great theological knowledge or insight despite his titles and training; he is thought of, however, as more intelligent than Raisi. He has helped past regimes quell dissent with military force, and does not appear to have much interest in social reform from his position of privilege within the nation; his place amongst hardliners further suggests as much; at 52-years-old at the time of this piece, he would likely be in control of the nation for decades to come.
Yet for me, I believe the most intriguing name that I’ve seen to be the grandson of the founder and first leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hassan Khomeini. As the grandson of Ruhollah and son of his right-hand man, Hassan, is not even 50-years-old at the time of this piece, has spoken openly and criticized the structure and rigidity of the Iranian government, its Fundamentalist leanings, and slow pace of evolution and development. He is considered something of a beloved figure amongst the people, being the grandson of the most revered and honored political and religious figure of the nation, and is a Sayyid like Raisi, Khamenei and Khatami, a Cleric, a Scholar like Araki, a Reformer like Rouhani and an opponent of military interference in civil life or elections.
Khomeini is the youngest of the candidates I’ve listed here, and does not have all of the educational ornaments of some of the older, reactionary candidates, but his appointment would be the bravest and most courageous choice that the Assembly of Experts could make. Being so young and full of passion for growth, he would likely have the next 25 to 35 years to affect change and development in his nation and for his people.
A reformist-minded Supreme Leader could truly make a major difference for so many millions of people going forward within Iran, and would likely work to bring Iran into greater harmony and concert with the rest of the international community as well; real diplomatic progress might be made between Iran and the rest of the world across this era. As this leader becomes the single strongest and most powerful figure in the entire nation, it is this person’s appointment that will, in concert to some degree with the dually elected President of each presidential cycle, morph and change the very perspectives, structure and timbre of the society and nation of Iran itself.
While the right-wing faction has Sayyid’s, spots upon the important councils and the support of the current Supreme Leader, it is no guarantee that the Principlist faction will hold as much sway, even on the Guardian Council or Assembly, as they do today once the current Supreme Leaders passes on. Some analysts like to discuss how the Assembly is a mostly ornamental body today, but I believe, thanks to its constitutional powers and placement, that its role and prestige will rebound upon the death of the current Ayatollah Khamenei. While a unanimous choice will be necessary to fill that position, it simply cannot be known for certain whether any of the Fundamentalist choices, within or without the Assembly or Guardian Council, can garner the unanimity needed to secure that position.
Ultimately, it might take someone with some type of in – one way or another – as well as theocratic or political stature to become the next Supreme Leader. With that in mind, in my mind, that leaves roughly three or four possible candidates: President Ebrahim Raisi, who has a marvelous relationship with the current Supreme Leader, Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has the complete trust and adoration of his father, Ayatollah Mohsen Araki, who wields tremendous intellectual influence through various means, or the grandson of the founder of the nation as it currently exists, Sayyid Hassan Khomeini; Hassan Rouhani is on the outskirts, while Sayyid Ahmad Khatami might just have too many well-known faces and names in his way.
Now, of course, those names that I mentioned as sitting on the outskirts as candidates, as well as various names that I did not explicitly mention, could also have the support of the powerful figures in the Iranian government to be sure; yet as this whole subject is very risque to discuss, only bits and pieces emerge at any given time, and so thatching those scraps together becomes the task at hand for anyone discussing the Iranian succession plan or route.
But again, I believe that it will be someone who can act as a continuation of a romantic lineage of political revolutionaries and/or Islamic intellectuals. The names of Raisi, Araki, Khamenei and Khomeini fit those requirements in one way or another without question, yet assessing the other candidates that were both mentioned and unmentioned will leave the reader considering that that individual might deserve the opportunity based upon merit, or possess a real chance at being appointed and voted to the position upon the death of Ali Khamenei. And that reader could very well, in the end, be correct in their assessment, but for me, the mix of age, connections, and in the instance of Hassan Khomeini, the intellectual, theocratic and societal knowledge and stature makes those three, and Khomenei in particular, the most likely of the candidates to next become the Supreme Leader of Iran.
While I think Hassan Rouhani would also make a fine, more intelligent and thoughtful leader as a more reform-minded man, I simply do not know if his reputation exists at the level of the three or four other men to both garner support and wield power effectively. Yet only one or two of the candidates could do so in a way that might truly and really reform and reimagine this nation as a way more equitable, liberal, tolerant and fair polity, similar to that vision of the Iranian Revolutionary Left, led once upon a time by the late Abolhassan Banisadr. Ultimately, we will not know who was positioned or who positioned themselves to best succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei until the moment that person or peoples has been chosen.
Until then, we can simply observe and learn about the candidates and figures of Iran, and best work to understand how each will bring Iran down a different path moving into the future; the future will hold, in the final analysis, reaction, reform, or revolution, and the Supreme Leader, whether that be Ebrahim Raisi, Mohsen Araki, Hassan Khomeini, Mojtaba Khamenei or someone else, will play one of the largest parts in determining what innovations, factors and forces will grip and mold Iran in the coming decades.
