USA (Washington Insider Magazine)—The U.S. economy is improving, but President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remain stagnant or declining. He consistently trails former President Donald Trump by a few percentage points since October. Many pundits ask: When will Biden finally benefit from a stronger economy? However, they are asking the wrong question. The link between economic performance and presidential approval has been broken for two decades.
This disconnection undermines accountability and reveals a troubling trend in today’s democracy: performance no longer directly impacts approval. It’s a symptom of the polarized political landscape and fragmented media environment.
As partisanship deepens, three distinct political realities emerge, each with its own view of the world: Democratic Reality, Republican Reality, and Politically Disengaged Reality.
In Democratic Reality, Biden’s administration is generally seen positively, crediting the president with economic improvements. Bad news, like a difficult economic moment, is often viewed as a challenge beyond his control, with the belief that Biden is doing his best. In this reality, Biden’s approval stays high, disconnected from economic outcomes.
Republican Reality, however, operates on the premise that Democrats, including Biden, are enemies. Any positive news is disregarded, while bad news is attributed to Biden’s failures. This deeply entrenched disapproval of Biden leads to low approval ratings among Republicans, regardless of economic indicators.
The third reality, Politically Disengaged Reality, is where most people tune out of politics altogether. Social media dominates their attention, leaving little space for political news. This group, often referred to as “Shrug Emoji Voters,” has little faith in the political system and feels increasingly alienated. For them, the economy could be improving, but unless they notice it on their terms, they won’t connect it to Biden’s presidency.
This divide wasn’t always so pronounced. In the past, there was more overlap between political realities. The media environment was more unified, with people consuming similar news regardless of political affiliation. However, today’s fragmented media landscape allows individuals to curate their own reality, reinforcing partisan divides and creating a sense of detachment from the larger political picture.
As the U.S. becomes more politically and geographically segregated, it’s easier for people to avoid news altogether or to tailor what they see to fit their existing beliefs. Bad news, which is more engaging and emotionally charged, spreads more quickly and attracts more attention. People have increasingly adapted to a world where media reflects their pre-existing opinions rather than offering diverse perspectives.
The reality of the economy is often filtered through the lens of party allegiance: if you like Biden, you will like the economy. If you don’t, the economic news will be framed negatively. The bifurcation of media and political realities has created an environment where “facts” become secondary to partisan loyalty.
Looking ahead, it’s clear that a return to a shared media experience is unlikely. The solution may lie in embracing a more pluralistic political system, with multiple parties offering overlapping viewpoints. Such a shift could break the current zero-sum political mindset and allow for more compromise and cooperation, essential for a healthy democracy.
As it stands, when political realities are divided into two stark opposing camps, the space for productive dialogue narrows, making the necessary compromise for progress nearly impossible. The disconnection between the economy and presidential approval is just one symptom of this larger political dysfunction.