Russia (Washington Insider Magazine)—A wave of anxiety has swept through European defense ministers and armed forces, fueled by the prospect of a NATO-skeptic Donald Trump potentially returning to the U.S. presidency. Concerns are mounting that Russia may not be forced out of Ukraine, prompting warnings that Europe could find itself embroiled in a conflict with Russia, even as it remains focused on Ukraine.
Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East are escalating. Israel’s offensive in Gaza continues, hostilities with Iran-aligned Hezbollah in Lebanon are intensifying, and the U.S. and U.K. have launched bombing raids on Houthi-controlled regions in Yemen to protect shipping in the Red Sea.
Voices from the Military
Adm. Rob Bauer, chair of NATO’s military committee, emphasized that peace is not guaranteed, stating, “that is why we are preparing for a conflict with Russia and terror groups if it comes to it,” ahead of NATO’s largest exercise in decades, which will involve 90,000 troops.
British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps expressed a stark shift in perception, declaring that the post-Cold War peace dividend is over and that the UK and its allies are “moving from a postwar to a prewar world.” He urged for rearmament to safeguard Europe from “Putin’s fury.”
German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius warned that while a Russian attack might not be imminent, experts anticipate a military threat that Europe hasn’t faced in 30 years, projecting a five- to eight-year timeline for potential aggression.
Is This Scaremongering?
While military planning often includes contingencies for warfare, concerns are heightened by the ongoing war in Ukraine, which has depleted Western stockpiles of weapons. The looming threat of a $61 billion military aid package for Ukraine being stalled in the U.S. Congress adds to the uncertainty, as Republicans demand a quid pro quo deal for securing the U.S. southern border.
Despite significant military aid—ranging from German Leopard 2 tanks to U.S. Bradley vehicles—efforts to breach Russian lines have largely failed. Experts caution that without U.S. support, Russia could gradually regain an upper hand in the conflict.
Trump’s rising dominance in the Republican primaries, particularly with victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, raises memories of his previous presidency. His past comments on potentially withdrawing U.S. support from NATO, coupled with his close ties to Putin, amplify concerns across Europe.
Future of NATO and European Defense
Manfred Weber, leader of the conservative European People’s Party in the European Parliament, has suggested that the EU should assume a greater defensive role, proposing a “European pillar of defense” supported by France’s nuclear capabilities. However, discussions about establishing an EU defense commissioner are unlikely to undermine NATO’s authority, given the membership of significant military powers like the U.K., Turkey, and the U.S.
Possibility of Wider War
Gen. Sir Patrick Sanders, head of the British Army, hinted that the professional army might not be sufficient for a prolonged conflict with Russia, suggesting a potential return to conscription in an all-out emergency. While such scenarios were deemed “not helpful” by Downing Street, some European nations, including Latvia and Sweden, are reviving forms of military service.
However, despite the aggressive rhetoric, it remains unclear whether Russia, even under Putin’s ambitions, possesses the capacity to attack NATO member states. With Western intelligence estimating 315,000 Russian casualties in Ukraine, the immediate threat to NATO appears less significant than the anxiety surrounding U.S. support.