Europe (Washington Insider Magazine)— Elections across the European Union are scheduled from June 6 to June 9, 2024. The outcome is expected to have significant implications for the EU’s policies, as nearly 370 million Europeans will vote to elect members of the European Parliament. This body, the EU’s only directly elected institution, has the power to block legislation, and the results could influence everything from migration to climate policy.
How Do European Elections Work?
Voters in each EU country will choose national political parties, similar to national elections. These elected officials then join transnational political groups in the European Parliament, aligning themselves based on ideology. Historically, the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) have dominated, with liberals (Renew Europe) and Greens playing key roles.
However, right-wing populist parties, such as the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID), have gained traction. ECR leans toward close ties with the U.S., while ID favors policies closer to Russia.
Voting will be staggered across countries, starting with the Netherlands on June 6. Germany has the largest number of seats (96), followed by France (81), Italy (76), and Spain (61), with a total of 720 members being elected. Results will be announced on the evening of June 9.
Projected Winners and Rising Far-Right Influence
Current forecasts suggest that the centrist blocs – EPP and S&D – will remain dominant, likely ensuring another term for Ursula von der Leyen as president of the European Commission. However, their grand coalition, which includes liberal groups, may lose seats due to voter dissatisfaction in countries like France.
The big winners are expected to be radical right-wing parties. ECR and ID, led by Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy and Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, are projected to secure more than a fifth of the seats, marking a significant shift. Far-right parties are also likely to emerge as the largest groups in at least five countries, including Austria, Belgium, France, and the Netherlands.
Laszlo Andor, of the Foundation for European Progressive Studies, warns that the EPP could further align with Eurosceptic parties like Meloni’s ECR, potentially undermining EU integration efforts.
What’s at Stake?
A stronger far-right presence could reshape European policies on key issues, particularly migration and climate change. Hardline migration policies, such as stricter border controls and outsourcing responsibilities to non-EU countries, could gain support. Similarly, the far-right has been critical of EU climate initiatives, arguing that they burden European businesses and farmers.
Despite the rise of the far-right, internal divisions may hinder their ability to form a unified bloc. For example, while the ECR supports military aid to Ukraine, parties within ID, such as Austria’s Freedom Party, are more aligned with Russia and oppose sanctions on Moscow. Disagreements over Ukraine could prevent these parties from consolidating their influence.
Even so, far-right parties may still exert significant influence on EU policies without forming a formal coalition. By acting as kingmakers on key decisions, they could challenge the progressive agenda on workers’ rights, women’s rights, and climate action.
Hungary’s far-right party Fidesz, led by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, has remained outside the ECR and ID groups due to its pro-Russia stance and controversial views on democracy and the rule of law.
Conclusion
The 2024 EU elections mark a pivotal moment for the bloc. The rise of far-right parties threatens to shift the balance of power, challenging the EU’s progressive goals on migration, climate change, and social policies. The ability of pro-European groups to maintain a majority will determine the future direction of the European Parliament and its capacity to address the continent’s most pressing challenges.