Gaza (Washington Insider Magazine) —The Biden administration is actively pursuing a cease-fire in Gaza as concerns grow over a potential wider conflict in the Middle East, particularly with Iran and its proxies. U.S. officials have reiterated President Joe Biden’s recent message to key mediators, including Qatar, emphasizing that discussions have entered their final stages and must conclude swiftly.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller indicated optimism regarding an impending agreement, stating,
“We really do think we are in the final stage of agreement on a framework.”
However, this optimism is contrasted by escalating tensions in the region, especially following Iran’s vow to retaliate for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, widely believed to have been orchestrated by Israel. Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator for the Middle East, cautioned that
“we’re on the cusp of a major regional war.”
Israel is also bracing for retaliation from Hezbollah in southern Lebanon after airstrikes in Beirut last week that killed Iranian-backed commander Fuad Shukr. Miller warned that Hezbollah is likely to launch a significant attack on Israel imminently.
In recent weeks, other Iran-aligned militias have intensified assaults on U.S. military positions in Iraq and Syria, marking a shift from months of relative calm.
The Political Landscape
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu believes that recent assassinations may compel Hamas to accept favorable terms for a cease-fire, even if the situation remains precarious. Mairav Zonszein from the International Crisis Group noted that Biden has voiced disapproval of Netanyahu’s actions, arguing that they undermine efforts to reach a truce.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has echoed Biden’s call for all parties to halt escalatory actions and focus on reaching an agreement. Despite U.S. pressure, Zonszein pointed out that Netanyahu’s defense establishment doubts his willingness to accept the current deal on the table.
Intense diplomatic efforts are underway, with U.S. officials engaging allies, Iran, and Israel directly. Additionally, Biden has conferred with Jordan’s King Abdullah II to discuss de-escalation and has deployed more U.S. military resources to the region as a cautionary measure against Iranian aggression.
Laura Blumenfeld from Johns Hopkins remarked,
“The F-22A Raptors jetting to the Middle East are high-tech messenger pigeons carrying a one-word note: ‘Don’t.'”
Changes Within Hamas
In the wake of Haniyeh’s assassination, Hamas appointed Yahya Sinwar as its new leader, a move that may solidify the group’s alignment with Iran and intensify its commitment to violent resistance against Israel. Devorah Margolin from The Washington Institute noted that this appointment indicates a return to Hamas’s foundational goals of armed struggle.
John Kirby, White House national security communications adviser, minimized fears that Sinwar’s leadership would complicate cease-fire negotiations, emphasizing that Sinwar has always been a key decision-maker in the group’s dealings.
Conclusion: A Critical Juncture
Despite the Biden administration’s assertions that cease-fire negotiations are nearing completion, skepticism remains among analysts. Brian Katulis from the Middle East Institute likened the U.S. message to a “Jedi mind trick,” suggesting it might serve as a strategic incentive for Iran and other parties to exercise restraint.
As regional and U.S. pressure mounts for a cease-fire and the Israeli public increasingly demands a resolution to return hostages, Netanyahu may find political space to navigate a breakthrough while maintaining his coalition.
As Blumenfeld noted,
“It could go either way, in the coming days — cease-fire or regional wildfire.”