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Russia And Its Pyrrhic Victories In Mariupol And Elsewhere: An Analysis

While Russia wishes to win at all costs in Ukraine, winning at all costs could be a price too high for that nation, President Putin, and its greater society to bear.

Bombing of Mariupol by Russia and Russian-allied forces; March 2022
Bombing of Mariupol by Russia and Russian-allied forces; March 2022

Russia continues to wage its bloody and ravenous war on Ukraine, inflicting mass suffering upon not only Ukrainians, as well as Russians within and without the military, but also, upon the greater world as a result of the interconnectivity of existence. As June of 2022 is now nearly over, 127 days have passed since Russia began its unorganized and unrelenting battery and invasion of Ukraine. While their progress has been slow, disjointed, disheveled, disastrous, and demoralizing for many within Russia, it has not stopped the Russian Autocrat and President Vladimir Putin from pushing onward still. 

Last month, in fact, Russia was able to claim – with evacuated Ukrainian soldiers serving as more evidence – that they had finally captured the long-coveted city of Mariupol, formerly rife with life, industry, and trade within that region. Now, it lies smoldering and relatively deserted from its previous numbers. Vladimir Putin and Russia can claim triumphant, glorious victory here if they should choose to, but more battles such as the one that eventually won Mariupol for Russia currently, will ultimately mean the end of the Russian war effort.

The victory at Mariupol, in other words, was a victory of a Pyrrhic nature, and like so many other historical victories of this type – Severodonetsk might very well be another – what has been given up to gain such a prize must be duly understood to have been of even greater value still. The list of these famous events is nearly as long as notable as many of the quotes that were generated from and by them, but they all begin with those battles of the Pyrrhic War, waged by the Romans under Publius Valerius Laevinus, Carthage, Magna Grecia (Greater Greece), Samnium (lower Latium or Italy), and the Kingdom of Epirus, to name the most famous of the ancient, Mediterranean polities

King Pyrrhus of Epirus famously won two particular battles against the Romans and their allies, who had many more men and resources than did his own army and allies. The Battles of Heraclea and Asculum in 280 BC and 279 BC respectively were, as was written by the famous writer and thinker of nearly two centuries later, Plutarch, in his equally as well known “Life of Pyrrhus,” victories that came at the heaviest of prices – human life; “If we are victorious in one more battle with the Romans, we shall be utterly ruined.”

Orosius, the Roman historian and theologian some six centuries after the famous Battles of Heraclea and Asculum, also mentions a variation upon the general gist of the quote, “Ne ego si iterum eodem modo vicero, sine ullo milite Epirum revertar.” – “If I achieve such a victory again, I shall return to Epirus without any soldier.” The Romans, under the command of Consul Publius Valerius, would win in this conflict ultimately, as they would win across the extended region for the better part of another seventeen and a half centuries. 

Carthage, meanwhile would not remain allied with the Romans for much longer, and their great capital city on the northern coast of Africa was razed and salted by 146 BCE; the quote so often associated with the Roman historian Tacitus – despite that he was actually quoting Calgacus, an enemy of Rome itself – “…where they make a desert, they call it peace,” is often still cited all these centuries later, and refers to the eventual destruction of Carthage by the Romans.

Greece too would fall to Roman ambitions too in due course – the Battle of Aticum – Attica – in 31 BCE is commonly given for the domination of Greece, but the process had been in the works for at least two centuries prior. Furthermore, neither Samnium or Epirus would exist outside of the sphere of influence of Rome either. The Mediterranian would become, for so many centuries from then on, truly the great “Roman Lake,” as their domination was often complete and total. 

Now, while Russia would love this type of power in their own region – especially as “the Third Rome” – the truth of the matter for them is much more similar to that of King Pyrrhus than of Consul Publius Valerius. Vladimir Putin and the Russian state is expounding a tremendous amount of energy and resources, while, conversely, losing lots of capital and resources from the uncooperative western nations and capital interests that previously co-mingled with Russia and with any other nation. As this writer has noted numerous times previously, Ukraine too is not truly a strategic boon vis-a-vis capital, but is more culturally and historically significant to Russia.

While this might not seem like a tremendously big deal to some, it absolutely is. Russia is expending all of these things in order to obtain something that will have, even should it be wrangled and subdued in some manner, little positive productive or economic purpose for the nation that is spending so much of itself to take and secure the regions or areas; while victories can buoy nerves and morale, they can only do so should the situation in question appear hopeful as a result of the battle or endeavor. 

And that, for all intents and purposes, is what is happening in this situation. While Russia would like to paint this as a step in the right direction against Ukraine, the truth of the matter is that Ukraine continues to dig in and push back against Russia in some areas, while in other areas, Russia pushes and eventually might succeed. The problem remains, how much effort and how many resources of various types are expended by Russia, for how much functional or material gain in return?

Right now, was this a game of prices, the price of Ukraine is simply more than the Russians can comfortably afford to pay, and yet they continue attempting to force through the metaphorical transaction. This has continued to come with truly mixed results, as reports that Russia has some level of occupation across 20% of Ukraine come mixed with those which discuss the severe mutiny situation that is plaguing the Russian armed forces.

Vladimir Putin could, of course, be trying to simply use this conquest of the ruins of Mariupol and of the Severdonetsk pocket as a ploy to push for a bilateral agreement with Ukraine in the vein of both Henry Kissinger and Noam Chomsky, he seems to have lost much of the guile that the Russian President was once infamously credited as possessing in great abundance. The reports of his ill health, assassination attempts, and sheer determination also help to paint a picture of a Despot that is on his last legs, and wished for glory for himself and his nation, even as ruin and shame could just as easily now befall them all.

Putin wishes this to be a successful war still; he does not wish to end it because he does not wish to compromise, he wishes to be gloriously successful in this military and territorial endeavor. He does not wish to destroy all neo-nazis in Ukraine – only pro-Ukrainian neo-nazis, and he will try to parlay this victory into more aggressive stances and efforts in Ukraine, and potentially even in neighboring Moldova. 

The Russian President knows that he does not have unlimited resources to fight a perpetual, forever war with a regional, and in many ways, cultural neighbor, and he knows that the economic gains in Ukraine are not worth the effort that is going into taking them; in this way, therefore, Putin is a bit more of a fatalist than even those respectively resigned leaders of the past. While they saw the writing on the wall too late and could not properly escape their fate once entrenched, Vladimir Putin could, in fact, extricate himself from this all should he actually wish to.

He does not, however. He wishes to either sail this Titanic across the Atlantic Ocean, or to sink to the bottom of the sea while trying. The problem with this plan, as the Titanic itself was a marvelously sad and terrible example of, is that when other people are on board too, they all might not be entirely willing to go down with the ship as romantically as its captain is. If, indeed, the rumors from Ukrainian intelligence via Insider are true, and Vladimir Putin has already survived an assassination attempt since this, “Special Operation” has begun, he clearly feels that only winning can save his administration, his legacy, as well as himself at this point. 

And so, as other reports have alluded to, the Russian President is doubling down, and that, as has been previously noted regarding Moldova, could spill over still more terribly. And yet, it could also fizzle and decay sooner than might be expected too. Putin is pushing and pushing, and he believes that his pushing will destabilize the world, the European and powerful western nations that he despises, and create further wiggle room for him to maneuver in this conflict; while to some degree this might have shreds of truth to it, it could just as well backfire terribly as well. 

For one thing, as has been noted, pouring resources – human and material – into this war instead of into the Russian society, is a real problem that might leave that nation in one of a number of difficult scenarios for leader, nation, and society. Should Russia find itself increasingly burdened by a war that has no tangible positive to it, not only would that mean the dwindling of Russian military morale and determination – already low over the last three months – but could leave greater monetary obligations to be paid by the very same people who are being suffocated most egregiously by the sanction regime that currently hangs around the neck of the state of Russia and its people.

Hence, if Vladimir Putin does not win over Ukraine, his fellow Russians, and this conflict as he continues to double and triple down on his war and its aims, the risk of Pyrrhic victories such as that witnessed at Mariupol increases as well. Soon, the entire conflict will descend into that sort of WWI, Vietnam-style stalemate, where manpower and capital are poured down metaphorical drains for mere meters of land; Putin Ukrainian conflict will soon evolve fully – if it hasn’t already – into something we might call a Pyrrhic War all it’s own.

Mariupol has fallen to the Russians as the third month of the war in Ukraine draws near, but this should not hearten Russia. It should make them reconsider what their next step on this road is. While they could sink more workforce effort and material resources into claiming something that serves little practical purpose for them – serving only a cultural and historical one – how much more difficult will cities moving forward be than was Mariupol? Will Ukraine be any easier? Will it get easier after months of fighting? Would Moldova be much easier? 

A Pyrrhic War is coming for Putin and Russia should they not see the writing on the wall after Mariupol. This victory was a warning for the autocrat of Russia, and only he can see it and act upon it, even if others can fully see it. While the Donbas and Crimea remain full of pushing and fighting, the same, slow waste of man and money, the external and internal pressures of this conflict and the global consequences of it continue to take their toll upon Russia as a whole; should Vladimir Putin and Russia not tread carefully moving forward, they will find themselves winning more battles that will inevitably lead to them losing this war.

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